NATURE TO NET ZERO
ALUS has embarked on a journey to develop an efficient, cost-effective and principle-based carbon quantification methodology that works for carbon buyers and farmers. Here's why and how we're doing it.
Carbon Quantification: A natural solution to the climate crisis
The climate crisis is a global emissions problem. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate are causing devastating weather events like floods, wildfire and drought; increasing global air and water temperatures; disrupting ecosystem function; threatening food security; and affecting people’s health and well-being.
The Government of Canada committed to reducing emissions by 40-45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050. There are two primary ways we can achieve this goal:
- Reduce the amount of GHGs entering the atmosphere, and
- Remove GHGs that have already been released into the atmosphere and permanently store them somewhere.
The first requires transitioning to clean, renewable energy sources and adopting more sustainable ways of living. The second requires nature.
Photo: ALUS Outaouais tree planting project. Jan Amell Photography
Nature as a solution
Transitioning toward a net-zero future will take time to ensure it’s done effectively, ethically and equitably.
But nature offers an immediate solution for capturing and storing carbon already released into the atmosphere.
Trees, shrubs, grasses and other vegetation naturally pull carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in stems, leaves, bark and branches (or above-ground biomass) and in organic matter in soil (soil organic carbon).
Planting more trees, restoring and sustainably managing more grasslands, and adopting farming practices that increase soil organic carbon can help mitigate the effects of climate change, while generating numerous co-benefits for biodiversity and water quality.
The carbon storage potential of farmland
There are nearly 190,000 farms in Canada covering approximately 6.2% of Canada’s land area. Every one of these farms contains field edges, low-lying regions prone to flooding, and other marginal or unproductive areas that have the potential to become thriving natural areas without disrupting food production.
Planting trees and shrubs and restoring wetland and grasslands on these parcels can increase the carbon sequestration potential of farmland.
Adopting regenerative agriculture practices, like enhanced grazing and keeping vegetation on fields year-round, can also help increase the carbon sequestration potential of managed pasturelands and croplands.
Image left: The carbon cycle. ALUS.
Carbon Quantification: Measuring the amount of carbon captured and stored by nature over time.
Why it's important to quantify carbon
We know that nature captures and stores (or sequesters) carbon. But how much? If we can measure—or quantify—how much carbon nature stores in soil and plants, we can estimate how much more carbon we can expect to remove if we grow more nature.
The market value of carbon-sequestering nature
Businesses, governments and other organizations are beginning to identify how much carbon (and other GHG) emissions they need to reduce to meet net-zero goals or other sustainability targets. Where operational or supply-chain reductions aren't possible, they're seeking ways to "offset" the remaining amounts by investing in nature-based solutions that have proven to be effective at capturing and storing carbon. Companies need to know how much carbon their nature-based projects can sequester to invest appropriately, as well as to calculate and accurately report their reductions.
Quantifying the amount of carbon an area of nature can produce helps us identify how much a unit of sequestered carbon is worth (i.e., the amount of money someone is willing to spend on one tonne of carbon) and helps organizations invest in the amount of nature they need to plant to reach their goals.
"Nature-based solutions have an important role to play in the climate transition. Climate change and nature loss are interconnected challenges. It is important that we work together to accelerate innovation that advances progress on both fronts."
The ALUS approach
ALUS saw an opportunity for farmers and ranchers to access the voluntary carbon and ecosystem service marketplace with their ALUS projects. Although farmers and ranchers are not directly excluded from participating in the marketplace, existing programs do not always work in the farmer's best interest. For example, some programs might require rights to all the carbon sequestered on a farmer's property, rather than the carbon sequestered by a single project; contracts might be unrealistic, requiring 100-year land-use restrictions; or participation might only count newly created projects, unfairly penalizing early adopters of nature-based solutions.
ALUS was committed to developing a unique approach to quantification that could deliver carbon claims to organizations wanting to invest in nature-based solutions, while also working in the best interests of the farmer and the farm. In 2023, ALUS designed a quantification methodology that outlines how soil organic carbon in ALUS grassland projects and above-ground biomass carbon in ALUS tree and shrub projects are estimated, monitored, and reported.
Methodology: A documented set of parameters, criteria and other factors that define how GHG/carbon reductions will be estimated, what data will be collected, how the data will be interpreted and converted into carbon stock estimates, how credit claims will be issued, and how the issuance procedure will address estimation errors and loss risk over time.
What sets ALUS’ methodology apart
ALUS' methodology reflects the on-the-ground realities of farmers and ranchers who have put nature-based projects in the ground.
- Eligible projects are non-prescriptive but are designed in collaboration with the farmer by the ALUS community Partnership Advisory Committee.
- Projects add new natural habitat to marginal, unproductive, inefficient, or environmentally sensitive lands that were previously involved in production agriculture and therefore does not reduce security of regional food/fibre/fuel supply.
- Carbon claims are not registered on land titles or land liens.
- Farmer and rancher participation is voluntary but ALUS’ project retention rate of 97.8% demonstrates participant commitment to project permanence.
- ALUS uses a dynamic baseline methodology to measure the difference in incremental carbon stock gain between projects and nearby production agriculture plots. This helps to ensure carbon credits are directly attributed to the project and are not the result of (for example) seasonal changes in weather and climate.
- ALUS farmers and ranchers will have a reasonable expectation of receiving recurring annual per-acre payments in exchange for the continued delivery of sequestered carbon by their projects.
Overcoming quantification challenges with technology
Quantifying the environmental benefits nature produces is inherently challenging. Nature exists in a constant state of change, and the land area is so vast that to manually measure outcomes, whether that's sequestered carbon or increased biodiversity, is nearly infeasible. To make carbon and other ecosystem service markets viable, quantification, monitoring and verification processes need to be both accurate and cost-effective or the price of one tonne of carbon will be cost prohibitive.
Technology can help us overcome these challenges. It allows for broader spatial coverage, improved precision and calibration. These are key for addressing uncertainty. Technology is also important for mitigating risks that may substantially affect the project’s ability to sequester and retain carbon over the long term. Technology not only helps to decrease costs but also increase the reliability of results.
The promise of technology
Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, remote sensing, and satellite imaging technologies have shown immense promise for quantifying carbon stored in above-ground biomass (ABG) and soil carbon. These models have become effective tools for estimating carbon; however, given the variability of nature-based solutions across space-time, more field-level data and model calibration is needed to ensure accurate predictions. Without representative ground truth data, the results these models produce may be unreliable when applied to real-world conditions. That's why ALUS partnered with innovative technology companies to help develop models and train AI to estimate carbon captured and stored in ALUS grassland and tree and shrub projects.
The Importance of ground truthing
Ground truth data refers to real-world measurements taken directly in the field to validate and improve data from satellite imagery and other remote sensing methods. By comparing remote sensing outputs with direct field-level measurements, predictive models become more precise and reliable. Ground truth data can help refine how models handle variations across space and time.
To calibrate AGB models, tree quantity, species, and height data for all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) greater than 2.5 are collected across representative sample plots. This data is then used to validate the accuracy of satellite-based estimates of AGB carbon. Comparing satellite-derived biomass estimates with actual ground measurement (e.g., data from the tree plots) helps to calibrate the model to improve predictions in real-world scenarios.
To calibrate SOC models, soil core samples are collected with field scans (sensor technology mounted to an ATV), to enable more precise, efficient and large-scale carbon monitoring. Scanning the whole field is essential because soil carbon levels can vary significantly over short distances. Traditional sampling methods require numerous samples, making them more expensive and time-consuming, which limits how often and how widely carbon can be measured.
GLOSSARY
Above-Ground Biomass Carbon: Planting trees helps to build above-ground biomass. ALUS has used equations from scientific literature to determine high-level carbon estimates in above-ground biomass carbon stocks in early-year tree planting projects where trees are difficult to detect with satellite imagery.
Gamma-ray Spectroscopy: An indirect method of measuring on-field carbon content by sensing the energy produced by carbon-neutron interactions.
Ground Truthing: Refers to the practice of physically sampling soil and measuring tree mass and survival rates at statistically representative sites to track the rate of change in carbon stocks over time.
Remote Sensing: Technology used to detect physical geographical characteristics from a distance, e.g., satellite imagery. In this context, remote sensing may refer to the use of high-resolution satellite imagery to identify project size, tree and shrub growth and survival rates, over time and above-ground biomass stock density.
Machine Learning: A process whereby systems learn and improve by analyzing large datasets and identifying patterns.
Multispectral Imaging: Captures images across a broader light spectrum to reveal characteristics that aren’t visible otherwise.
Soil Organic Carbon: Natural grasslands capture and store CO2 from the atmosphere, converting it into above-ground biomass carbon and durable below-ground soil organic carbon. To estimate incremental soil organic carbon sequestration, ALUS used the COMET-Planner evaluation tool developed by the USDA/NRCS.
Training the Machines
Remote Sensing and Satellite Imaging
ALUS measured and mapped carbon stocks in tree planting and natural grassland projects established by ALUS farmers and ranchers using AI-powered satellite imagery processed with a machine learning model to accurately estimate carbon stock changes. Satellite radar and multispectral imaging (also used in precision agriculture to monitor crop health) were analyzed along with ground truth data to train and calibrate the model further.
Tree above-ground biomass satellite imaging technologies have typically been trained on mature forests. To better support satellite imagery processing of edge-of-field projects, which are often smaller areas with different planting patterns, ages, and densities, ALUS worked with its technology partners to develop a novel tree detection mask. The mask was used to detect low density vegetation more precisely, which is more typical of edge-of-field projects on farms. More than 1,000 tree planting projects, representing over 2,000 acres, were mapped to a 50-centimetre resolution across five provinces. This helps the model to estimate carbon stock changes more precisely, which can then be used to predict carbon in similar settings elsewhere.
Training the Machines
On-field sensor technologies
ALUS partnered with soil data measurement and mapping companies to leverage on-field sensor technologies to map field-scale carbon concentrations. On-field sensors augmented by machine learning were used to measure carbon content from baseline soil core samples. Because project size and site conditions can vary, sample cores are selected carefully to represent different soil type, project age, and bioclimatic conditions, among other factors. More than 60 adaptive multi-paddock grazing projects, representing over 2,800 acres of managed pasturelands in the ALUS community network, have been sampled and mapped to date.
Measuring soil organic carbon using gamma-ray spectroscopy
Discover how soil organic carbon is measured in ALUS grassland projects.
The Future of Quantification
Nature-based projects produce several environmental benefits not limited to carbon sequestration. These benefits include but are not limited to water filtration (reduced nutrient and sedimentation in watercourses); groundwater recharge (improved water infiltration); wildlife habitat (increased biodiversity); climate resilience (reduced risk of flood and drought). Out of many of the benefits nature provides, carbon sequestration is one of the easiest to quantify. But tools, models and technologies are being developed to quantify water and biodiversity outcomes.
ALUS is currently working with researchers and organizations to develop models and tools to more easily and accurately estimate the water quality and retention benefits of agriculture practice changes, while also exploring technologies, like acoustic monitoring and environmental DNA, to quantify biodiversity benefits from ALUS projects.
ALUS’ mission is to engage farmers and ranchers in creating nature-based solutions on their land to build climate resilience and enhance biodiversity for the benefit of communities and future generations. Quantifying the environmental benefits farmers and ranchers produce for their farms, people and communities through their nature-based projects is one of the ways we hope to achieve it.
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